Cyber Posture

Mythos Hype Index

Consensus estimates and our own modeling predict a flood of new CVEs due to AI-enabled vulnerability detection. But what if we are wrong? How will we know? Our daily tracker compares 2026 CVE growth with prior years to discern whether the flood is here.

(For the detailed paper predicting CVE volume, see “AI-enabled Vulnerability Discovery” above.)

Last updated: 04 May 2026 05:47 UTC

94
Mythos Hype Score
10-day trend
+3 pts vs. 10d ago
Daily Mythos Hype Score
0 — predictions on track 100 — pure hype

Annual growth in published CVEs

Five prior years of year-over-year growth, with a daily-updated estimate for 2026 (annualised from 22,496 CVEs published in the first 124 days). Asterisk and dashed border = estimate.

Expected CVEs vs. worst predictions

Since the Mythos paper was published on 2026-04-01, 6,250 CVEs have been published across 33 publishing days (out of 34 elapsed calendar days) — an expected annualised rate of 69,129 CVEs/year (★ our best estimate). The chart below highlights this “Expected” bar in sky blue with a bolded label, since it is the only point grounded in observed post-paper data. For context, 2025 saw 49,972 CVEs in total. The 2026 Prediction (no LLM) bar of 65,887/year is computed by annualising the 16,246 CVEs published in the first 90 days of 2026 (the run-rate before the Mythos paper landed).

Our four projections assuming LLM-based discovery of new vulnerabilities ranged from 268,800/year (S2 · floor (20% disc., 80% LLM)) to 588,800/year (S1 · worst case (10% disc., 80% LLM)). The most aggressive Year-1 projection (Scenario S1) was 588,800/year.